London is set to host critical behind-the-scenes talks this week that could determine whether the war in Ukraine moves toward a ceasefire or drags on indefinitely.

Ukraine’s defense minister is nearly fully aligned with US President Donald Trump’s proposed cease-fire framework aimed at ending Russia’s invasion, according to a senior Trump administration official quoted in The New York Post. 

The plan, presented in Paris this week by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and two special envoys, is reportedly “90%” acceptable to Kyiv.

Ukraine signals conditional support

Ukraine’s defense minister Rustem Umerov has been reviewing the Trump proposal with concerns primarily over territorial definitions in a potential cease-fire deal. 

According to the senior US official, according to The Post, Ukraine’s main hesitation centers on whether the ceasefire lines would reflect a temporary military reality (“de facto”) or formal recognition of Russian occupation (“de jure”).

“This coming week in London, we want to make a determination for a full and comprehensive cease-fire,” the official said. “The intent then is to have [discussions] with the Russians and then say, ‘OK, this is your best and final offer,’ to find out where both sides are at.”

“I think part of the concern they’ve got is on the land … just what they call ‘de jure’ and ‘de facto,’” the Trump administration official said. “‘De facto’ mean we recognize the Russians occupy this land, but we don’t say [Ukraine is] going to give it up forever. ‘De jure’ means we acknowledge that [the Russians] take in this land and we’ll never see it back again.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky remains firm in refusing to recognize any Russian-occupied land as part of Moscow. However, he has reportedly shown openness to a ceasefire based on current front lines, which would see Russia controlling about 20% of Ukrainian territory.

Russia’s response remains uncertain

Moscow is yet to formally respond to the Trump peace framework, and officials acknowledge the Kremlin could reject the plan altogether. In that case, the US administration is preparing to shift the burden of maintaining European security back to its allies, the news report stated.

“Trump is ready to walk away from the table without Moscow’s buy-in,” the official was quoted as saying, adding that responsibility would then fall on America’s European partners.

Incentives for Moscow: Sanctions relief and frozen assets

To entice Russia to the negotiating table, Special Presidential Envoy Steve Witkoff may offer potential incentives, the news report stated.

The United States may offer Moscow incentives such as sanctions relief and partial access to the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets in European banks to coax it to the table.

“The carrot, for the Russians, is a look at, ‘How do we reduce the sanctions that are currently on the Russians?’” the senior official noted. “The other is, ‘How do you handle the frozen Russian assets — that $300 billion that sits in Brussels, what happens with those, as well?’”

Next steps in London

As the Trump team prepares for high-level consultations in London, their goal is to lock in Kyiv’s final position and begin discreet outreach to Russian officials, as per the report. The goal is to establish clear positions from both sides and determine whether a full cease-fire agreement is viable — or whether the US should abandon the process.